Nothing to be Scared of

SciScoop contributor and University of Buffalo medic Bradford Frank sent us a copy of his latest book “Terror Unleashed” recently. Frank’s hypothesis is that the human race is soon to face a whole range of major crises from bird flu and oil shortages to financial collapse and devasting terrorist attacks. He begins by emphasising that the ideas he presents, are just that, ideas, and that there is no proof any of the events he describes will come to pass. However, what he does hope to achieve is to raise awareness of the potential threats to you, your family, your nation, and your planet.

You can read it, go into denial, and dismiss it as pure, unadulterated scaremongering. Or, you can absorb the warnings, make provision for their occurrence, and feel smug and fairly secure should they ever come to pass. For instance, it does seem like it is only a matter of time before we enter a period of financial depression, after all the boom-bust cycles of modern economics are well founded in history. Again, bird flu is the virus of the day, but it needn’t be H5N1 that leads to an influenza epidemic on a bigger scale than that of 1918-1919, there are dozens of emerging viruses just waiting to spring across the species gap from their current animal hosts. As to the impending oil shortage, global warming, nuclear terrorism, and electromagnetic pulses…we’ll certainly know about them if and when they hit.

Frank’s book is scaremongering. That’s for sure. And, if he weren’t a well-respected MD at a well-known US university, he might be the kind of man to walk the city streets with a placard proclaiming “The End of the World is Nigh”. The only trouble is, he might actually be right.

Frank’s website points to resources that could help in an emergency, but I also suggest you check out Stephen Jones’ Bird Flu Survival Guide.

Avian Influenza Lottery

According to a previous interviewee of mine, Sir David King (one-time UKĀ  chief advisor on science), you’ve got far more chance of winning the lottery than catching H5N1, the most-talked about of the avian influenza viruses. King told The Times that the chances of someone in Britain catching bird flu is 1 in 100 million. Compare that with the 14 million to one chance of winning the lottery and you can see just how small the risk is.

It’s essentially what we’ve been saying all along, the media generally loves a health scare, and H5N1 is just the latest of those (along with benzene in soft drinks of course). It is nevertheless only a matter of time before someone in the UK does succumb to this virus (unlocky sod), but even when they do, that does not herald the global pandemic of killer flu that the scaremongers are hoping for. I say hoping, they really will have a field day once that little bundle of genetic material and protein finds a way to carry itself from human to human…good news never sold papers, after all.

Bird Flu Symptoms

Spread of avian influenzaAs Britain braces itself for the arrival of avian influenza from Continental Europe, I thought it would be timely to remind Sciencebase readers of a bird flu FAQ I wrote towards the end of last year to try and separate the facts from the fiction regarding H5N1 and the threat of a global bird flu pandemic.

UPDATE: From Google.org – Each week, millions of users around the world search for online health information. As you might expect, there are more flu-related searches during flu season, more allergy-related searches during allergy season, and more sunburn-related searches during the summer. You can explore all of these phenomena using Google Trends. But can search query trends provide an accurate, reliable model of real-world phenomena?

By tracking search trends related to flu, Google now reckons it can predict the spread of the disease.

Venture Capitalizing on Avian Flu Risk

According to the latest issue of FierceBiotech, just received in the Sciencebase office, venture capitalists are hoping to invest in bird flu. Apparently, Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers (they always have such long company names don’t they?) is starting a US$200 million life sciences fund to focus on new therapies against avian influenza ahead of a putative global pandemic. FierceBiotech reports that biopharma and university groups are to be steered towards this area of research with BioCryst Pharmaceuticals of Birmingham, first up for funding to help it develop its antiviral Peramivir.

Taking the Bite Out of the Flu

According to a report on Alternet, homeopathy was more effective than a vaccine during the 1918 flu epidemic: (Flu). The one issue that isn’t addressed in the claim that, “Homeopathy may be more effective than flu shots” is that during the deadly flu outbreak of 1918, those patients who could have afforded to be treated with homeopathy would have been the idle rich who would like have retired to their country homes because of the Great War anyway and would not only have had a better diet, but a reduced risk of exposure.

Check out their coverage there are dozens of comments from posters pointing out dozens of other flaws in their argument.

For a relatively rational perspective on homeopathy, read my article – Homeopathy – all in the mind?

Flu is Not the Only Germ

Flu isn’t the only pathogenic threat at this time of year, according to a report on News Medical Net [link now defunct], metapneumovirus, rhinoviruses, coronaviruses, parainfluenza, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and others knock many of us for six each winter and are responsible for thousands of deaths. They don’t make the headlines because they’re not so easy to pronounce as “bird flu” nor is there anything particularly newsy about how you catch them (from doorknobs, faucets, and appliance handles, if you must know). They also lie dormant in your nose and lungs too waiting the right conditions to pounce. Despite their low profile, however, these are killer diseases that claim lives needlessly, while celebrity viruses such as H5N1 and SARS steal the headlines.

Turkish H5N1

This joint statement from the UK’s Medical Research Council’s National Institute for Medical Research and the World Health Organisation just in:

The genetic and antigenic analyses of viruses recovered from two fatal cases of H5N1 influenza in Turkey have been completed at the WHO International Influenza Centre at the MRC’s National Institute for Medical Research in Mill Hill, London.

These viruses are very closely related to current avian H5N1 viruses in Turkey, and also to those isolated at Qinghai Lake in Western China last year.

The gene sequences of the viruses indicate that they are sensitive to the antivirals Tamiflu and amantadine.

Virus from one of the human cases contains mutations in the receptor binding protein, haemagglutinin. One of these has been observed before in viruses from Hong Kong in 2003 and Vietnam in 2005. Research has indicated that the Hong Kong 2003 viruses preferred to bind to human cell receptors more than to avian receptors and it is expected that the Turkish virus will also have this characteristic.

You can read more on the bird flu story

Coughing and spluttering

Scientists at Northwestern University in the US have determined the molecular structure of a viral protein, the parainfluenza virus 5 fusion (F) protein. The parainfluenza virus 5 is part of a family of viruses (paramyxoviruses) that causes everything from pneumonia, croup and bronchiolitis to cold-like illness and is responsible for many hospitalizations and deaths each year. The results are published in the Jan. 5 issue of the journal Nature. Also, check out our how to avoid colds and flu page for advice on sidestepping viruses.

Bird Flu Symptoms

Judging from the gradual tailing off of visitors to my bird flu symptoms page, it’s almost as if people have already forgotten the hype. This is probably mainly due to reduced exposure to bird flu in the mainstream press, and as they say no news, is good news.

Regardless, the science behind the scenes goes on and you can read my feature on the Tamiflu shortage in Nature online this week.

Meanwhile, news just in points to mutations in the viral polymerase gene as explaining how strains of influenza can jump the species barrier. According to Juergen Stech of the Institute of Virology in Marburg, Germany, writing in this week’s PNAS, polymerase mutations may be a pre-requisite to a pandemic, although he also points out that although convergent evolution in the polymerase gene plays a role, polymerase is not the whole story.

The mainstream media is quiet on the bird flu front at the moment, for as long as it stays that way, we’re probably flu free.

How to avoid colds and flu

These past few days I’ve felt rather listless, had vaguely aching limbs, a mild headache that comes and goes, and a dull, throbbing ache where I had my flu jab more than a month ago…could it be that I’ve actually caught flu, and that the vaccine has held off the worst of the symptoms? That throbbing pain at the site of the jab seems to be the smoking gun, but I’m not sure whether there is some persistent immune response at the site of an injection that might cause recurrent symptoms when one is struck subsequently by the live virus…

Anyone know for sure? I’d be interested in qualified comments

Meanwhile check out our practical tips on how to avoid colds and flu.